Several HIRLAM and ALADIN institutes have earlier developed or are in the process of developing a variety of techniques for short-range ensemble forecasting in limited domains. The HIRLAM and ALADIN consortia aim to integrate the knowledge, experience, and results from these activities, and incorporate them in an operationally feasible distributed ensemble forecasting system. The major challenge for this system is to provide reliable probabilistic forecast information, on the short range (up to 60h), at spatial resolution of 10 20 km and particularly suited for the probabilistic forecasting of severe, high impact, weather.
The aim of this project is to establish an operational grand limited area ensemble prediction system (GLAMEPS). This will in production mode constitute a distributed, multi-model EPS production system. Individual countries from HIRLAM and ALADIN will each produce a subset of ensemble members in a variety of manners. Results from each member will be exchanged in real-time between GLAMEPS participants and added together in a common statistic for probabilistic forecasting. It is anticipated that this will produce ensemble forecasts based on a range of perturbation methods from ~7 HIRLAM countries and ~10 ALADIN countries.
GLAMEPS is partially developed in special projects at ECMWF. For more information see the GLAMEPS special project information at ECMWF.
For a more detailed documentation please see the documentation pages on Probabilistic Forecasting and GLAMEPS.
The GLAMEPS project portal can be found here.