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Forum on operational GLAMEPS

TOPIC: Warning waether from GLAMEPS and other EPS system

Warning waether from GLAMEPS and other EPS system 7 years 2 months ago #917

  • Xiaohua Yang
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ILately there has been some discussion in HIRLAM community about how to get people alerted about the forecast of warning events for significant weather as predicted by the GLAMEPS and other EPS forecast system such as that of DMI-IHIRLAM 5 km model.

Let me start with a current case, in which the GLAMEPS forecast from 06 UTC run this morning shows a high probablity of stormy system tonight, in connection with a deepning low passing through southern Baltic Sea and Lithuania
glameps.org/valid/index.html?choice_ind=G10m

This is more clearly shown in the upscaled probabilistic forecast for GLAMEPS as well as DMI E05 ensemble forecast
hirlam.org/portal/dmi/s05eps/2012/10/05/...st24gl&fcl=12&area=x

Let's see hjow things develop in reality.

Note that in the above upscaling probability plot the displayed probability shall be interpreted as "the probability of a certain weather event to occur in a model grid within a range of the upscaling distance".

In the upscaling plot as shown in the above interface, such upscaling distance is around 90 km, and the grid size for GLAMEPS is 11 km, and 5.5 km for DMI-E05 ensemble.
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